Publications
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Quarterly Housing Update 2012: 1st Quarter
In an analysis of first quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume rose in the first quarter of 2012, with the number of transactions citywide up almost five percent. Housing prices throughout the city are up 3.5 percent compared to the same quarter last year. The report also finds that the number of foreclosure notices issued in Q1 2012 has fallen citywide since its peak in the third quarter of 2009. However, foreclosure notices in Queens and Staten Island increased by more than 20 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011
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Quarterly Housing Update 2012: 2nd Quarter
In an analysis of second quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume increased in the third quarter of 2012, with the number of transactions citywide up by 16.4 percent. Housing prices throughout the city are up 2.7 percent compared to the same quarter last year. There were 243 new units authorized by building permits in the second quarter of 2012, 386 fewer than the previous quarter and 1,159 fewer than the same quarter of 2011. The report also finds that the number of foreclosure notices issued in Q2 2012 has increased 34.9 percent citywide since the first quarter of 2012, with the highest increase seen in Queens with 41 percent.
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Pathways After Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?
We use a detailed dataset of seriously delinquent mortgages to examine the dynamic process of mortgage default – from initial delinquency and default to final resolution of the loan and disposition of the property. We estimate a two-stage competing risk hazard model to assess the factors associated with whether a borrower behind on mortgage payments receives a legal notice of foreclosure, and with what ultimately happens to the borrower and property. In particular, we focus on a borrower’s ability to avoid a foreclosure auction by getting a modification, by refinancing the loan, or by selling the property. We find that the outcomes of the foreclosure process are significantly related to: the terms of the loan; the borrower’s credit history; current loan-to-value and the presence of a junior lien; the borrower’s post-default payment behavior; the borrower’s participation in foreclosure counseling; neighborhood characteristics such as foreclosure rates, recent house price depreciation and median income; and the borrower’s race and ethnicity.
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Challenges Facing Housing Markets in the Next Decade: Developing a Policy-Relevant Research Agenda
This paper proposes a research agenda that addresses the major challenges facing the U.S. housing market: the long-term effects of the housing market crisis on today’s households and on the next generation, increasing poverty coupled with persistently high income inequality and volatility, continued concentration of poor and minority households in low-quality housing and low-opportunity neighborhoods, and the growing need for sustainable and resilient buildings and communities. This analysis is a framing paper for the What Works Collaborative, a foundation-supported research partnership that conducts timely research and analysis to help inform the implementation of an evidence-based housing and urban policy agenda.
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Distribution of the Burden of New York City’s Property Tax
The analysis from the 2011 State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods report finds that owners of New York City’s large rental apartments are subject to a higher effective property tax rate than owners of one- to three-family homes, and bear a disproportionate share of the city’s overall property tax burden. Condominiums and cooperative apartments also are subject to much lower effective tax rates than rental properties with similar characteristics.
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Subsidized Housing: A Cross-City Comparison
The analysis from the 2011 State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods report compares federally-subsidized housing programs across the nation’s five most populous cities: New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia. New York City has the largest share of subsidized rental housing of the five cities, due mostly to its large stock of public housing. Over five percent of the city’s housing units in 2008 (almost 180,000 units) were in public housing. In addition to subsidies, more than one million units—nearly half of the rental housing stock—are rent stabilized in New York City.
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The State of Mortgage Lending in New York City
The analysis of recent mortgage trends from the 2011 State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods report finds that home purchase loans originated in 2010 increased 11 percent over 2009, interrupting what had been a steady downward trend in annual lending since 2005. Much of the rise is due to a 22 percent increase in the number of homebuyers taking out mortgages in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods. The number of loans issued to white, black, and Hispanic borrowers in New York City all increased in 2010, while lending to Asian borrowers decreased slightly.
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Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 4th Quarter
In an analysis of fourth quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2011, with the number of transactions citywide down 15 percent from the previous quarter and 11 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010. Foreclosure starts were down in most of the city, with 33 percent fewer foreclosure notices issued in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the same quarter in 2010. Manhattan was the only borough where the number of foreclosure starts increased, although the number of notices issued in Manhattan still remained well below the numbers issued in any of the other boroughs.
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Comment on ‘Are the Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) Justified?’
In “Are the Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) Justified?” the authors conclude that the benefits delivered by the GSEs (as structured prior to conservatorship) are minimal and do not exceed their costs. While many of the arguments made in the article have merit and raise serious questions about the structure of the GSEs prior to 2008, the article overlooks several important benefits and costs. More significantly, no one is arguing for a return of the GSEs as they were structured prior to conservatorship. Rather than debate the merits of a model that has already been rejected by policymakers, we argue that the far more important question is what the housing finance market should look like in the future.
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Household Energy Bills and Subsidized Housing
Household energy consumption is crucial to national energy policy. This article analyzes how the rules covering utility costs in the four major federal housing assistance programs alter landlord and tenant incentives for energy efficiency investment and conservation. We conclude that, relative to market-rate housing, assistance programs provide less incentive to landlords and tenants for energy efficiency investment and conservation, and utilities are more likely to be included in the rent. Using data from the American Housing Survey, we examine the differences in utility billing arrangements between assisted and unassisted low-income renters and find that—even when controlling for observable building and tenant differences—the rent that assisted tenants pay is more likely to include utilities. Among all tenants who pay utility bills separately from rent, observable
differences in energy expenses for assisted and unassisted tenants are driven by unit, building, and household characteristics rather than the receipt of government assistance.