Publications

  • Pathways After Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?

    We use a detailed dataset of seriously delinquent mortgages to examine the dynamic process of mortgage default – from initial delinquency and default to final resolution of the loan and disposition of the property. We estimate a two-stage competing risk hazard model to assess the factors associated with whether a borrower behind on mortgage payments receives a legal notice of foreclosure, and with what ultimately happens to the borrower and property. In particular, we focus on a borrower’s ability to avoid a foreclosure auction by getting a modification, by refinancing the loan, or by selling the property. We find that the outcomes of the foreclosure process are significantly related to: the terms of the loan; the borrower’s credit history; current loan-to-value and the presence of a junior lien; the borrower’s post-default payment behavior; the borrower’s participation in foreclosure counseling; neighborhood characteristics such as foreclosure rates, recent house price depreciation and median income; and the borrower’s race and ethnicity.

  • Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 3rd Quarter

    In an analysis of third quarter housing indicators, The Furman Center finds that home sales volume remained low in the third quarter of 2011, with the number of properties sold citywide four percent lower than the number sold in the third quarter of 2010. Property values are also lagging in most of the city. Manhattan is the only borough where properties have appreciated in price over the last year. The Quarterly Housing Update is unique among New York City housing reports because it incorporates sales data, residential development indicators, and foreclosures. It also presents a repeat sales index for each borough to capture price appreciation while controlling for housing quality.

  • Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 4th Quarter

    In an analysis of fourth quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2011, with the number of transactions citywide down 15 percent from the previous quarter and 11 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010. Foreclosure starts were down in most of the city, with 33 percent fewer foreclosure notices issued in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the same quarter in 2010. Manhattan was the only borough where the number of foreclosure starts increased, although the number of notices issued in Manhattan still remained well below the numbers issued in any of the other boroughs.

  • Quarterly Housing Update 2012: 1st Quarter

    In an analysis of first quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume rose in the first quarter of 2012, with the number of transactions citywide up almost five percent. Housing prices throughout the city are up 3.5 percent compared to the same quarter last year. The report also finds that the number of foreclosure notices issued in Q1 2012 has fallen citywide since its peak in the third quarter of 2009. However, foreclosure notices in Queens and Staten Island increased by more than 20 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011

  • Quarterly Housing Update 2012: 2nd Quarter

    In an analysis of second quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume increased in the third quarter of 2012, with the number of transactions citywide up by 16.4 percent. Housing prices throughout the city are up 2.7 percent compared to the same quarter last year. There were 243 new units authorized by building permits in the second quarter of 2012, 386 fewer than the previous quarter and 1,159 fewer than the same quarter of 2011. The report also finds that the number of foreclosure notices issued in Q2 2012 has increased 34.9 percent citywide since the first quarter of 2012, with the highest increase seen in Queens with 41 percent.

  • Quarterly Housing Update 2012: 3rd Quarter

    In an analysis of third quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume remained relatively stagnant in the third quarter of 2012, with the number of transactions citywide down by 0.1 percent. Housing prices throughout the city are up 4.4 percent compared to the same quarter last year. The report also finds that the number of foreclosure notices issued in Q3 2012 has increased 14.5 percent citywide since the third quarter of 2011, with a 40.9 percent increase in Queens.

  • Quarterly Housing Update 2013: 1st Quarter

    Indicators of new housing development look promising, according to the Furman Center’s New York City 2013 Quarterly Housing Update: 1st Quarter. Citywide, the number of units authorized by new residential building permits increased to its highest point since late 2008. This is the fourth consecutive quarter with more than 2,000 new units approved for development in New York City.

  • Quarterly Housing Update: 1st Quarter 2015

    Housing prices increased over seven percent citywide compared to the same quarter of the previous year, according to the Furman Center’s New York City 2015 Quarterly Housing Update: 1st Quarter, with prices in Brooklyn surpassing the peak level set before the Great Recession. The number of residential home sales increased by five percent citywide compared to the same quarter in 2014. Developers received approval to build nearly 6,000 new housing units in New York City, with projects in Brooklyn accounting for nearly all the growth in new development activity. The number of properties receiving notices of foreclosure was nearly 11 percent lower than it was during the same quarter in 2014. Read the full report.

  • Quarterly Housing Update: 2nd Quarter 2013

    Manhattan sales prices have surpassed their pre-recession peak, according to the Furman Center’s New York City 2013 Quarterly Housing Update: 2nd Quarter. But, despite the rise in residential sales prices and volume, foreclosure filings across New York City have continued to grow. 

  • Quarterly Housing Update: 2nd Quarter 2014

    In the second quarter of 2014, total notices of foreclosure decreased in all boroughs, with a citywide drop of 17.1 percent, according to the NYU Furman Center’s 2014 Quarterly Housing Update: 2nd Quarter. Initial foreclosure filings fell nearly 35 percent citywide making this the second quarter in a row with year-over-year decreases in initial foreclosures. The report also found that residential property prices in New York City increased by 8 percent compared to the same quarter in 2013, with a 12.1 increase in Manhattan and an 11.2 increase in Brooklyn. See press release or read the full report.