NYU Urban Seminar: Jon Caulkins on Considering Marijuana Legalization

News & Events | September 29th 2015

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On September 29th, the NYU Urban Seminar series, co-hosted by the NYU Furman Center and the Marron Institute, welcomed Dr. Jon Caulkins, professor from Heinz College at Carnegie Mellon University. He presented his current research on recent changes in marijuana policies and the decisions that confront jurisdictions that are considering alternatives to traditional marijuana prohibition. 

Caulkins discussed his paper, titled,"Options and Issues Regarding Marijuana Legalization” (PDF), and argued that marijuana policy should not be viewed as a binary choice between prohibition and the for-profit commercial models seen in Colorado and Washington State. Instead, several intermediate supply options should be considered, as well as key decisions regardingt taxation and regulations.

The data collected in Caulkins’ study highlights and confirms many of the perceived trends of marijuana use today, and also illustrates shifts in social attitudes. The number of marijuana users in the U.S. has been on an upward climb since the mid-1990s. Daily users comprise about 20% of the total amount of users in the country, but this specific demographic also represents nearly 80% of national consumption. In previous decades, the bulk of marijuana users were youth under the age of 21. Today, the majority of users are between the ages of 21 and 30. Also noteworthy is that arrests for possession of marijuana are declining at the national level.

Still, Caulkins conceded that massive uncertainty remains about the effects of marijuana legalization. First, not all of the potential social effects of legalization are made evident through data analysis; further objective study is needed to determine if such connections exist. He cautioned against trusting the validity of social-cost analysis because of the inordinate number of variables that come into play when determining policy. Also, he noted that few conclusions can be drawn about the likelihood of marijuana leading to the use of other psychoactive substances, such as alcohol, tobacco, prescription opiods, and illegal drugs. Caulkins attributes this to the tendency for scientific inquiries into the subject to be biased according to the preconceived notions of researchers.

Caulkins emphasized that states considering options regarding marijuana legalization should seek objective data based on their own values when considering public policy design, such as government oversight, intervention, and retail sales. He also suggests that state lawmakers consider alternatives simply prohibition and commercialization when discussing legalization policy. Ultimately, he argued, state lawmakers must recognize that  legalization policies at the state level could have far-reaching consequences for the region and the nation as a whole.

The NYU Urban Seminar series is co-hosted by the NYU Furman Center and the Marron Institute. The speaker series is focused on research with implications for urban policy, and features a variety of researchers from across the U.S. discussing their work. View the full list of fall 2015 speakers. The NYU Urban Seminar is open to the public; registration is required.

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