Publications

  • Research Area: Homeownership ×
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  • Quarterly Housing Update 2012: 1st Quarter

    In an analysis of first quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume rose in the first quarter of 2012, with the number of transactions citywide up almost five percent. Housing prices throughout the city are up 3.5 percent compared to the same quarter last year. The report also finds that the number of foreclosure notices issued in Q1 2012 has fallen citywide since its peak in the third quarter of 2009. However, foreclosure notices in Queens and Staten Island increased by more than 20 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011

  • Quarterly Housing Update 2012: 2nd Quarter

    In an analysis of second quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume increased in the third quarter of 2012, with the number of transactions citywide up by 16.4 percent. Housing prices throughout the city are up 2.7 percent compared to the same quarter last year. There were 243 new units authorized by building permits in the second quarter of 2012, 386 fewer than the previous quarter and 1,159 fewer than the same quarter of 2011. The report also finds that the number of foreclosure notices issued in Q2 2012 has increased 34.9 percent citywide since the first quarter of 2012, with the highest increase seen in Queens with 41 percent.

  • Pathways After Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?

    We use a detailed dataset of seriously delinquent mortgages to examine the dynamic process of mortgage default – from initial delinquency and default to final resolution of the loan and disposition of the property. We estimate a two-stage competing risk hazard model to assess the factors associated with whether a borrower behind on mortgage payments receives a legal notice of foreclosure, and with what ultimately happens to the borrower and property. In particular, we focus on a borrower’s ability to avoid a foreclosure auction by getting a modification, by refinancing the loan, or by selling the property. We find that the outcomes of the foreclosure process are significantly related to: the terms of the loan; the borrower’s credit history; current loan-to-value and the presence of a junior lien; the borrower’s post-default payment behavior; the borrower’s participation in foreclosure counseling; neighborhood characteristics such as foreclosure rates, recent house price depreciation and median income; and the borrower’s race and ethnicity.

  • Challenges Facing Housing Markets in the Next Decade: Developing a Policy-Relevant Research Agenda

    This paper proposes a research agenda that addresses the major challenges facing the U.S. housing market: the long-term effects of the housing market crisis on today’s households and on the next generation, increasing poverty coupled with persistently high income inequality and volatility, continued concentration of poor and minority households in low-quality housing and low-opportunity neighborhoods, and the growing need for sustainable and resilient buildings and communities. This analysis is a framing paper for the What Works Collaborative, a foundation-supported research partnership that conducts timely research and analysis to help inform the implementation of an evidence-based housing and urban policy agenda.

  • The State of Mortgage Lending in New York City

    The analysis of recent mortgage trends from the 2011 State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods report finds that home purchase loans originated in 2010 increased 11 percent over 2009, interrupting what had been a steady downward trend in annual lending since 2005. Much of the rise is due to a 22 percent increase in the number of homebuyers taking out mortgages in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods. The number of loans issued to white, black, and Hispanic borrowers in New York City all increased in 2010, while lending to Asian borrowers decreased slightly.

  • Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 4th Quarter

    In an analysis of fourth quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2011, with the number of transactions citywide down 15 percent from the previous quarter and 11 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010. Foreclosure starts were down in most of the city, with 33 percent fewer foreclosure notices issued in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the same quarter in 2010. Manhattan was the only borough where the number of foreclosure starts increased, although the number of notices issued in Manhattan still remained well below the numbers issued in any of the other boroughs.

  • Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 3rd Quarter

    In an analysis of third quarter housing indicators, The Furman Center finds that home sales volume remained low in the third quarter of 2011, with the number of properties sold citywide four percent lower than the number sold in the third quarter of 2010. Property values are also lagging in most of the city. Manhattan is the only borough where properties have appreciated in price over the last year. The Quarterly Housing Update is unique among New York City housing reports because it incorporates sales data, residential development indicators, and foreclosures. It also presents a repeat sales index for each borough to capture price appreciation while controlling for housing quality.

  • Loan Modifications: What Works

    We use a unique dataset that combines data on loan, borrower, property, and neighborhood characteristics of modified mortgages on properties in New York City to examine the determinates of successful modifications. From November 2007 through March 2011, over 2.1 million mortgages were modified in the United States, and policymakers have heralded such modifications as a key to addressing the ongoing foreclosure crisis. This dataset includes both HAMP modifications and proprietary modifications. The analysis builds upon a prior paper in which the determinants of loan modifications were examined.

  • A Canary in the Mortgage Market? Why the Recent FHA and GSE Loan Limit Reductions Deserve Attention

    Explores the potential implications of recent reductions in the maximum loan size that can be guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Government-Sponsored Enterprises or GSEs), or insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) in many parts of the country. The changes, which went into effect on Oct. 1, 2011, represent the first step in a long-term policy goal to reduce the federal government’s current role in the mortgage system. They will also be a significant test of the private mortgage finance system.

  • Determinants of the Incidence of Loan Modifications

    Loan modifications ensure that borrowers avoid foreclosure and save their credit record. These modifications are also beneficial to the neighborhoods in which these borrowers reside, preventing vacancies and high rates of turnover. This analysis looks at loan delinquency and repayment plan data from New York City borrowers to provide the strongest predictors of modifications or liquidation of property. In this paper, we answer key questions about loan modifications, including how the identity, property or neighborhood of the borrower affects the likelihood of receiving a modification. We also look at the role of residential segregation, as well as the identity of the loan’s servicer as an influence on variations in borrower access to loan modifications.