Publications Working Papers
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Working Paper
How Low Income Neighborhoods Change: Entry, Exit, and Enhancement PDF
Ingrid Gould Ellen, Kathy O'Regan. August 2010.
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Working Paper
The Role of Neighborhood Characteristics in Mortgage Default Risk: Evidence from New York City PDF
We construct a database of non-prime hybrid adjustable and fixed rate mortgages from New York City that augments a rich set of loan and borrower risk characteristics with a variety of census tract level neighborhood characteristics. We find that these neighborhood characteristics are important for default behavior, even after an extensive set of controls. First, default rates increase with the rate of foreclosure notices and the number of lender-owned properties (REOs) in the tract. Second, default rates for home purchase mortgages are higher in predominantly black tracts, regardless of the borrower’s own race. We explore possible explanations for our findings.
Sewin Chan, Michael Gedal, Vicki Been, Andrew Haughwout. June 2010.
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Working Paper
Community Benefits Agreements: A New Local Government Tool or Another Variation on the Exactions Theme? PDF
Community benefits agreements (CBAs) are the latest in a long line of tools neighbors have used to protect their neighborhood from the burdens of development, and to try to secure benefits from the proposed development. This Article canvasses the benefits and drawbacks various stakeholders perceive CBAs to offer or to threaten, and reviews the legal and policy questions CBAs present. It recommends that local governments avoid the use of CBAs in land use approval processes unless the CBAs are negotiated through processes designed to ensure the transparency of the negotiations, the representativeness and accountability of the negotiators, and the legality and enforceability of the CBAs’ terms.
Vicki Been. April 2010.
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Working Paper
Minimum Parking Requirements: Transit Proximity and Development in New York City PDF
New York City policymakers are planning for a city of over 9 million residents by 2030, a large increase from today. A central goal of City officials is to accommodate this increase while simultaneously improving the City’s overall environmental performance, addressing externalities arising from traffic congestion and providing increased access to affordable housing. The requirement in the City’s zoning code that new residential construction be accompanied by a minimum number of off-street parking spaces, however, may conflict with this goal. Critics argue that parking requirements bundle the cost of unnecessary new parking with new housing, not only increasing the cost of housing, but also reducing the density at which it can be built. Facilitating car ownership by requiring parking may also lead to increases in auto-related externalities. In this research, we combine a theoretical discussion of parking requirements in New York City with a quantitative analysis of how they relate to transit and development opportunity. Using lot-level data and GIS we estimate two measures of the parking requirement for each lot and at a City, borough and neighborhood level. Our results indicate that the per unit parking requirement is, on average, lower in areas near rail transit stations, consistent with the City’s development goals. However, we also find that the required number of spaces per square foot of land area is higher, on average, in these areas. This raises interesting questions about the role of parking requirements in determining the use of scarce land resources in transit-rich neighborhoods.
Simon McDonnell, Josiah Madar, Vicki Been. November 2009.
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Working Paper
Underused Lots in New York City PDF
Despite a robust real estate market for most of this decade, researchers and policymakers have observed that many areas of New York City have remained built out well below their zoning capacity. This study aims to contribute to our understanding of urban redevelopment by compiling and analyzing a large database of underdeveloped lots in the City. We identify about 200,000 such lots as of 2003 that were built out at less than 50% of their zoning capacity, representing about a quarter of all residentially zoned lots. Of these, about 8% were redeveloped during the subsequent four years. Our preliminary analysis reveals that underdeveloped lots are primarily made up of low density 1-4 family houses and are disproportionately located in poor and minority neighborhoods. We plan to use this analysis as the foundation for further analysis to assess whether market failures and regulatory and other barriers impede desirable development in mature cities.
Vicki Been, Josiah Madar, Simon McDonnell. November 2009.
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Working Paper
Can Homeownership Transform Communities? Evidence on the Impact of Subsidized, Owner-Occupied Housing Investments on the Quality of Local Schools PDF
While recent evidence demonstrates that subsidized investments in owneroccupied housing can lead to increases in property values (Schwartz et al. 2006), the impact of such housing on other community amenities is largely unexamined. Yet, the response of local services to public investments is crucial for policy-makers and community development practitioners who view increasing subsidized homeownership as a mechanism to improve urban neighborhoods. Drawing on evidence from New York City, we examine the impact of subsidized housing on the quality of local schools by studying exogenous variation in city investments in owner and rental units. Specifically, we explore whether – and in what ways – publicly financed investments in owner- or renter-occupied housing made in the late 1980s and 1990s by the City of New York affected the characteristics and performance of local public schools. Our results suggest that the completion of subsidized, owner-occupied housing is associated with a decrease in schools’ percentage of free lunch eligible students, an increase in schools’ percentage of white students, and controlling for these compositional changes, a positive change in pass rates on standardized reading and math exams.
Ingrid Gould Ellen, Colin Chellman, Brian J. McCabe, Amy Ellen Schwartz, & Leanna Stiefel. October 2009.
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Working Paper
Crime and U.S. Cities: Recent Patterns and Implications PDF
For most of the twentieth century, U.S. cities – and their high-poverty neighborhoods in particular—were viewed as dangerous, crime-ridden places that middle class, mobile (and typically white) households avoided, fueling suburbanization. While some pundits and policy analysts bemoaned this urban flight, others voiced concern over the potential impact of crime-ridden environments on the urban residents who were left behind. In the past decade or so, the media has instead highlighted the dramatic reductions in crime taking place in many large cities. In this paper we explore these crime reductions and their implications for urban environments.
Ingrid Gould Ellen & Katherine O'Regan. January 2009.
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Working Paper
The Impact of Supportive Housing on Surrounding Neighborhoods PDF
Communities across New York City and around the nation commonly oppose proposals to open supportive housing in their neighborhoods because of fear that the housing will decrease the quality of life in the neighborhood, and lead to reductions in property values. This study aims to give supportive housing providers and local government officials objective, credible information to guide policy decisions and to respond to opponents’ fears and arguments. Using a difference-in-difference regression model to isolate the effect of supportive housing from more general macro and micro market trends and neighborhood variations, this paper examines the impact that almost 7,500 units of supportive housing created in New York City over the past twenty years have had on their host neighborhoods over time.
Been, Vicki, Ingrid Gould Ellen, Michael Gedal, Ioan Voicu. October 2008.
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Working Paper
Neighborhood Effects of Concentrated Mortgage Foreclosures PDF
As the national mortgage crisis has worsened, an increasing number of communities are facing declining housing prices and high rates of foreclosure. Central to the call for government intervention in this crisis is the claim that foreclosures not only hurt those who are losing their homes to foreclosure, but also harm neighbors by reducing the value of nearby properties and in turn, reducing local governments’ tax bases. The extent to which foreclosures do in fact drive down neighboring property values has become a crucial question for policy-makers. In this paper, we use a unique dataset on property sales and foreclosure filings in New York City from 2000 to 2005 to identify the effects of foreclosure starts on housing prices in the surrounding neighborhood. Regression results suggest that above some threshold, proximity to properties in foreclosure is associated with lower sales prices. The magnitude of the price discount increases with the number of properties in foreclosure, but not in a linear relationship.
Schuetz, Jenny, Vicki Been, Ingrid Gould Ellen. Journal of Housing Economics, December 2008. October 2008.
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Working Paper
31 Flavors of Inclusionary Zoning: Comparing policies from San Francisco, D.C. and Suburban Boston PDF
As housing costs have risen in the U.S. and federal subsidies for affordable housing programs have declined, inclusionary zoning (IZ) has become an increasingly popular local policy for producing low-income housing without direct public subsidy. The structure of IZ policies can vary in a number of ways; consequently, there is not yet a consensus about what policies constitute “true” inclusionary zoning. In this paper we compare the ways in which IZ programs have been structured in three regions in which it is relatively widespread and long-standing. Our results demonstrate that IZ programs are highly complex and exhibit considerable variation in their structures and outcomes. In the San Francisco Bay Area, IZ programs tend to be mandatory and apply broadly across locations and structure types, but attempt to soften potential negative impacts with cost offsets and alternatives to on-site construction. In the Washington DC area, most IZ programs are also mandatory, but have broader exemptions for small developments and low-density housing types. IZ programs in the Suburban Boston area exhibit the most withinregion heterogeneity. In this area, IZ is more likely to be voluntary and to apply only to a narrow range of developments, such as multifamily or age-restricted housing, or within certain zoning districts. The amount of affordable housing produced under IZ varies considerably, both within and across the regions. The flexibility of IZ allows planners to create a program that accommodates local policy goals, housing market conditions and political circumstances.
Schuetz, Jenny, Vicki Been, Rachel Meltzer. Forthcoming: Journal of the American Planning Association. September 2008.
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Working Paper
Silver Bullet or Trojan Horse? The Effects of Inclusionary Zoning on Local Housing Markets PDF
Many local governments are adopting inclusionary zoning (IZ) as a means of producing affordable housing without direct public subsidies. In this paper, we use panel data on IZ in the San Francisco metropolitan area and Suburban Boston to analyze how much affordable housing the programs produce and how IZ affects the prices and production of market-rate housing. The amount of affordable housing produced under IZ has been modest and depends primarily on how long IZ has been in place. Results from Suburban Boston suggest that IZ has contributed to increased housing prices and lower rates of production during periods of regional house price appreciation. In the San Francisco area, IZ also appears to increase housing prices in times of regional price appreciation but depresses prices during cooler regional markets. There is no evidence of a statistically significant effect of IZ on new housing development in the Bay Area.
Schuetz, Jenny, Vicki Been, Rachel Meltzer. Forthcoming: Urban Studies. June 2008.
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Working Paper
The Effects of Inclusionary Zoning on Local Housing Markets PDF
Many local governments in metropolitan areas with high housing costs are adopting inclusionary
zoning (IZ) as a means of producing housing that is affordable to low- and moderate-income
households without direct public subsidies. Critics charge that IZ ordinances impose additional
costs on new development and may lead to reductions in supply and increases in the price of
market rate housing. Advocates of IZ argue that any negative effects IZ might have on
production can be mitigated through density bonuses or other cost offsets. Rigorous empirical
study of the effects of inclusionary zoning ordinances has been hampered by the lack of accurate,
timely data describing IZ and the land use regulatory schemes in which IZ programs fit. In this
paper, we use panel data on the adoption and characteristics of IZ in the San Francisco and
Washington DC metropolitan areas and the Boston-area suburbs to analyze which jurisdictions
adopt IZ, how much affordable housing the programs produce and the effects of IZ on the prices
and production of market-rate housing. The IZ programs among our sample jurisdictions are
complex policies and exhibit considerable variation in their design, particularly across the three
regions. We find that larger, more highly educated jurisdictions and those surrounded by more
neighbors with IZ are more likely to adopt IZ. Whether and how many affordable units are
produced under IZ depends primarily on the length of time IZ has been in place. The results
from Boston-area suburbs provide some evidence that IZ has contributed to increased housing
prices and lower rates of housing production. There is no evidence that IZ has constrained
supply or increased prices among Bay Area jurisdictions. Limitations on the availability and
quality of our data suggest that our results should be interpreted cautiously, but also suggest that
IZ programs should be designed cautiously to mitigate possible negative impacts on housing
supply.Jenny Schuetz, Rachel Meltzer, Vicki Been. November 2007.
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Working Paper
No Renters in My Suburban Backyard: Land Use Regulation and the Rental Housing Market in MA PDF
For several decades, academics and policymakers have argued that the ability of low- and moderate-income families to move into desirable suburban areas is constrained by the high cost of housing in those areas. Local zoning ordinances and other forms of land use regulation are believed to contribute to increased housing prices by reducing supply and increasing the size and quality of new housing. Restrictions on rental housing in particular are likely to reduce prospects of mobility for low- and moderate-income families. In this paper, I employ an instrumental variables approach to examine the effects of regulations on the quantity and price of rental housing in Massachusetts, using historical municipal characteristics to instrument for current regulations. Results suggest that communities with less restrictive zoning issue significantly more building permits for multifamily housing but do not have significantly lower rents. The lack of differences in rents across communities may reflect spillover effects and regional supply constraints. The analysis of rents may also be confounded by the thinness of the rental market and development of subsidized housing under the state’s affordable housing law.
Schuetz, Jenny. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. June 2007.
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Working Paper
The Effect of Community Gardens on Neighboring Property Values PDF
Cities across the United States that have considerable vacant land are debating whether to foster community gardens on that land, while cities with land shortages are debating when to replace gardens with other uses. Meanwhile, many cities are looking for new ways to finance green spaces. Little empirical evidence about the neighborhood impacts of community gardens is available, however, to inform the debate or to help cities design financing schemes. This paper estimates the impact of community gardens on neighborhood property values, using rich data for New York City and a difference-in-difference specification of a hedonic regression model. We find that gardens have significant positive effects, especially in the poorest neighborhoods. Higher quality gardens have the greatest positive impact.
Been, Vicki and Ioan Voicu. Real Estate Economics, Vol. 36, Issue 2, (Summer 2008). June 2007.
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Working Paper
The Impact of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Housing on Surrounding Neighborhoods: Evidence from NYC PDF
In this report, we examine the neighborhood impact of low income housing tax credit developments in New York City, where 42,077 units of LIHTC housing were newly constructed or rehabilitated between 1987 and 2003.
Ellen, Ingrid Gould and Ioan Voicu. May 2007.
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Working Paper
The Impact of Business Improvement Districts on Property Values: Evidence from New York City PDF
Our paper aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of BIDs on commercial property values in New York City. With the largest pool of BIDs in the country, New York is an ideal study site. Its 55 BIDs encompass a broad range of budget sizes, services and locations. This large and diverse set of BIDs, together with the city’s tremendous size and diversity of neighborhoods, allows us to examine the impact of BIDs in very different types of areas, including both very high-density office districts and more suburban-style, retail strips. Thus, we can gain some insight into the underlying mechanisms through which BIDs influence property values and the circumstances under which BIDs may be a useful tool for local economic development. Further, the diversity of BID and neighborhood types offers the opportunity to examine the robustness of our findings, and gauge the extent to which the lessons learned can be generalized and applied to other cities and circumstances.
Ellen, Ingrid Gould, Amy Ellen Schwartz and Ioan Voicu. Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, (2007). May 2007.
business improvement districts, economic development, neighborhoods, property values
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Working Paper
The Condominium v. Cooperative Puzzle: An Empirical Analysis of Housing in New York City PDF
One of the enduring puzzles of New York City’s housing market is the persistence of the housing cooperative, despite the prevailing wisdom that condominiums are more valuable than cooperatives. In this article, we examine the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of cooperatives and condominiums, and apply these theoretical insights to empirically test whether there is a price premium attributable to condominium housing. We then use our findings to speculate as to why the cooperative form remains dominant in New York City and whether its dominance is likely to continue in the future. The empirical analysis is based on hedonic models of house values and uses rich data on apartments sold in New York City between 1984 and 2002.
Schill, Michael H., Ioan Voicu, and Jonathan Miller. The Journal of Legal Studies, vol. 36 (June 2007). July 2006.
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Working Paper
The Impact of Subsidized Housing Investment on New York City’s Neighborhoods PDF
Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. July 2006.
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Working Paper
Housing Policy in New York City: A Brief History PDF
This policy brief aims to tell the story of housing policy in New York City over the past 30 years or so. The first section describes the city’s unprecedented efforts to rebuild its housing stock during the late 1980s and 1990s. The second section analyzes the specific features of the city’s Ten Year Plan that made these efforts so successful. The third section then discusses the city’s current housing environment and the policy challenges it presents.
Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. April 2006.
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Working Paper
Removing Regulatory Barriers: One City’s Experience PDF
The difficulty of developing housing in New York City is as legendary as its cost. The city has had a vacancy rate under 5% — the legislative threshold defining a housing “emergency”—for more than 55 years. More than one commission or blue ribbon panel has identified government regulation as one of the primary causes of the housing problem. Since 2000, however, an opportunity presented itself to finally make some progress in reducing the cost of housing construction. Removing regulatory barriers to housing development caught the interest of two mayors—Rudolph Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg—and their respective housing commissioners.
Schill, Michael H. September 2005.
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