Publications
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White Papers
A Canary in the Mortgage Market? Why the Recent FHA and GSE Loan Limit Reductions Deserve Attention
Explores the potential implications of recent reductions in the maximum loan size that can be guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Government-Sponsored Enterprises or GSEs), or insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) in many parts of the country. The changes, which went into effect on Oct. 1, 2011, represent the first step in a long-term policy goal to reduce the federal government’s current role in the mortgage system. They will also be a significant test of the private mortgage finance system.
Josiah Madar and Mark Willis. October 2011.
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Working Paper
Determinants of the Incidence of Loan Modifications
Loan modifications ensure that borrowers avoid foreclosure and save their credit record. These modifications are also beneficial to the neighborhoods in which these borrowers reside, preventing vacancies and high rates of turnover. This analysis looks at loan delinquency and repayment plan data from New York City borrowers to provide the strongest predictors of modifications or liquidation of property. In this paper, we answer key questions about loan modifications, including how the identity, property or neighborhood of the borrower affects the likelihood of receiving a modification. We also look at the role of residential segregation, as well as the identity of the loan’s servicer as an influence on variations in borrower access to loan modifications.
Vicki Been, Mary Weselcouch, Ioan Voicu, Scott Murff. September 2011.
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White Papers
State of New York City’s Subsidized Housing: 2011
To reduce the financial burden that low- and moderate-income families in New York City face, city, state and federal agencies have employed numerous subsidy programs to encourage private developers to own and manage affordable housing developments. With the cooperation of government housing agencies, the Furman Center created the Subsidized Housing Information Project (SHIP)—an online searchable database containing information on the nearly 235,000 units of privately-owned, subsidized affordable rental housing in New York City developed with major subsidy programs. This report is the first comprehensive analysis of properties in our SHIP database, and identifies opportunities to preserve affordable housing in the coming years.
Jaclene Begley, Caitlyn Brazill, Vincent Reina, Max Weselcouch. September 2011.
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White Papers
Navigating Uncertain Waters: Mortgage Lending in the Wake of the Great Recession
This report summarizes our February 4, 2011 Roundtable of the same name, and provides an in-depth exploration of credit availability and lending patterns during the recession.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. August 2011.
homeownership, housing finance, housing prices, mortgage foreclosures, mortgages
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Data Brief
New York City Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 2nd Quarter
In an analysis of second quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that home sales volume declined 20 percent from the first to the second quarter of 2011, although home prices citywide held steady. The report also finds that new construction is slowly starting to return with 1,556 units authorized by new residential building permits between January and June 2010, compared with 1,703 units authorized in all of 2010.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. August 2011.
affordable housing, housing prices, mortgage foreclosures, neighborhoods
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Data Brief
Mortgage Lending to Vulnerable Communities: A Closer Look at HMDA 2009
Across the U.S., the number of home purchase mortgages issued to low- and moderate-income borrowers jumped by 26 percent in 2009, even as overall home purchase lending declined, new research released by the Furman Center finds. The data brief, Mortgage Lending to Vulnerable Communities: A Closer Look at HMDA 2009, finds that lending to low- and moderate-income homebuyers increased nationwide in 2009, despite a reduction in the number of home purchase mortgages issued to higher income borrowers. Lending in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods, on the other hand, did not see a similar increase.
Josiah Madar, Max Weselcouch. August 2011.
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Working Paper
The Role of Neighborhood Characteristics in Mortgage Default Risk: Evidence from New York City
We construct a database of non-prime hybrid adjustable and fixed rate mortgages from New York City that augments a rich set of loan and borrower risk characteristics with a variety of census tract level neighborhood characteristics. We find that these neighborhood characteristics are important for default behavior, even after an extensive set of controls. First, default rates increase with the rate of foreclosure notices and the number of lender-owned properties (REOs) in the tract. Second, default rates for home purchase mortgages are higher in predominantly black tracts, regardless of the borrower’s own race. We explore possible explanations for our findings.
Sewin Chan, Michael Gedal, Vicki Been, Andrew Haughwout. August 2011.
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Working Paper
Pathways After Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?
We use a detailed dataset of seriously delinquent mortgages to examine the dynamic process of mortgage default – from initial delinquency and default to final resolution of the loan and disposition of the property. We estimate a two-stage competing risk hazard model to assess the factors associated with whether a borrower behind on mortgage payments receives a legal notice of foreclosure, and with what ultimately happens to the borrower and property. In particular, we focus on a borrower’s ability to avoid a foreclosure auction by getting a modification, by refinancing the loan, or by selling the property. We find that the outcomes of the foreclosure process are significantly related to: the terms of the loan; the borrower’s credit history; current loan-to-value and the presence of a junior lien; the borrower’s post-default payment behavior; the borrower’s participation in foreclosure counseling; neighborhood characteristics such as foreclosure rates, recent house price depreciation and median income; and the borrower’s race and ethnicity.
Sewin Chan, Claudia Sharygin, Vicki Been, Andrew Haughwout. August 2011.
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Article
Rental Housing Policy in the United States
In this volume of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s policy development and research journal, Cityscape, guest editors Vicki Been and Ingrid Gould Ellen bring together seven innovative proposals from leading housing researchers calling for changes in government policies to benefit renters and their communities. This collection of articles propose reforms, such as the elimination of the mortgage interest deduction, which could serve as viable alternatives to traditional federal rental programs. These perspectives offer U.S. policymakers ways to potentially adapt international housing assistance models to reform the domestic housing market.
Vicki Been, Ingrid Gould Ellen. Cityscape (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development) . July 2011.
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Working Paper
Do Foreclosures Cause Crime?
The mortgage foreclosure crisis has generated increasing concerns about the effects of foreclosed properties on their surrounding neighborhoods, and on criminal activity in particular. Using a unique dataset of point-specific longitudinal crime and foreclosure data from New York City, this paper explores whether foreclosed properties affect criminal activity on the surrounding blockface – an individual street segment including properties on both sides of the street. The researchers report that foreclosures on a blockface lead to additional violent crimes and public order crimes, and these effects are largest when foreclosure activity is measured by the number of bank-owned properties on a blockface.
Ingrid Gould Ellen, Johanna Lacoe, Claudia Ayanna Sharygin. June 2011.
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