Publications Housing Finance and Foreclosures
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Data Brief
The State of Mortgage Lending in New York City
The analysis of recent mortgage trends from the 2011 State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods report finds that home purchase loans originated in 2010 increased 11 percent over 2009, interrupting what had been a steady downward trend in annual lending since 2005. Much of the rise is due to a 22 percent increase in the number of homebuyers taking out mortgages in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods. The number of loans issued to white, black, and Hispanic borrowers in New York City all increased in 2010, while lending to Asian borrowers decreased slightly.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. May 2012.
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White Papers
A Canary in the Mortgage Market? Why the Recent FHA and GSE Loan Limit Reductions Deserve Attention
Explores the potential implications of recent reductions in the maximum loan size that can be guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Government-Sponsored Enterprises or GSEs), or insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) in many parts of the country. The changes, which went into effect on Oct. 1, 2011, represent the first step in a long-term policy goal to reduce the federal government’s current role in the mortgage system. They will also be a significant test of the private mortgage finance system.
Josiah Madar and Mark Willis. October 2011.
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Working Paper
Determinants of the Incidence of Loan Modifications
Loan modifications ensure that borrowers avoid foreclosure and save their credit record. These modifications are also beneficial to the neighborhoods in which these borrowers reside, preventing vacancies and high rates of turnover. This analysis looks at loan delinquency and repayment plan data from New York City borrowers to provide the strongest predictors of modifications or liquidation of property. In this paper, we answer key questions about loan modifications, including how the identity, property or neighborhood of the borrower affects the likelihood of receiving a modification. We also look at the role of residential segregation, as well as the identity of the loan’s servicer as an influence on variations in borrower access to loan modifications.
Vicki Been, Mary Weselcouch, Ioan Voicu, Scott Murff. September 2011.
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White Papers
Navigating Uncertain Waters: Mortgage Lending in the Wake of the Great Recession
This report summarizes our February 4, 2011 Roundtable of the same name, and provides an in-depth exploration of credit availability and lending patterns during the recession.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. August 2011.
homeownership, housing finance, housing prices, mortgage foreclosures, mortgages
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Data Brief
Mortgage Lending to Vulnerable Communities: A Closer Look at HMDA 2009
Across the U.S., the number of home purchase mortgages issued to low- and moderate-income borrowers jumped by 26 percent in 2009, even as overall home purchase lending declined, new research released by the Furman Center finds. The data brief, Mortgage Lending to Vulnerable Communities: A Closer Look at HMDA 2009, finds that lending to low- and moderate-income homebuyers increased nationwide in 2009, despite a reduction in the number of home purchase mortgages issued to higher income borrowers. Lending in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods, on the other hand, did not see a similar increase.
Josiah Madar, Max Weselcouch. August 2011.
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Working Paper
The Role of Neighborhood Characteristics in Mortgage Default Risk: Evidence from New York City
We construct a database of non-prime hybrid adjustable and fixed rate mortgages from New York City that augments a rich set of loan and borrower risk characteristics with a variety of census tract level neighborhood characteristics. We find that these neighborhood characteristics are important for default behavior, even after an extensive set of controls. First, default rates increase with the rate of foreclosure notices and the number of lender-owned properties (REOs) in the tract. Second, default rates for home purchase mortgages are higher in predominantly black tracts, regardless of the borrower’s own race. We explore possible explanations for our findings.
Sewin Chan, Michael Gedal, Vicki Been, Andrew Haughwout. August 2011.
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Working Paper
Pathways After Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?
We use a detailed dataset of seriously delinquent mortgages to examine the dynamic process of mortgage default – from initial delinquency and default to final resolution of the loan and disposition of the property. We estimate a two-stage competing risk hazard model to assess the factors associated with whether a borrower behind on mortgage payments receives a legal notice of foreclosure, and with what ultimately happens to the borrower and property. In particular, we focus on a borrower’s ability to avoid a foreclosure auction by getting a modification, by refinancing the loan, or by selling the property. We find that the outcomes of the foreclosure process are significantly related to: the terms of the loan; the borrower’s credit history; current loan-to-value and the presence of a junior lien; the borrower’s post-default payment behavior; the borrower’s participation in foreclosure counseling; neighborhood characteristics such as foreclosure rates, recent house price depreciation and median income; and the borrower’s race and ethnicity.
Sewin Chan, Claudia Sharygin, Vicki Been, Andrew Haughwout. August 2011.
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Working Paper
Do Foreclosures Cause Crime?
The mortgage foreclosure crisis has generated increasing concerns about the effects of foreclosed properties on their surrounding neighborhoods, and on criminal activity in particular. Using a unique dataset of point-specific longitudinal crime and foreclosure data from New York City, this paper explores whether foreclosed properties affect criminal activity on the surrounding blockface – an individual street segment including properties on both sides of the street. The researchers report that foreclosures on a blockface lead to additional violent crimes and public order crimes, and these effects are largest when foreclosure activity is measured by the number of bank-owned properties on a blockface.
Ingrid Gould Ellen, Johanna Lacoe, Claudia Ayanna Sharygin. June 2011.
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Chapter
The American Mortgage System: Crisis and Reform
The Secondary Mortgage Market for Housing Finance in the United States: A Brief Overview
Understanding both the current problems in the secondary market and the proposed solutions requires an understanding of the role of the secondary mortgage market in U.S. housing finance. In this chapter, the authors focus in particular on the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which for decades were the largest players in the U.S. system. The authors conclude that while the described weaknesses within the chapter are important, and the structure of the GSE’s should surely be improved, it would be a mistake to assume that simply reforming the GSEs, without making significant reforms to the private-label market, would prevent another crisis.
The Community Reinvestment Act: Evaluating Past Performance and Reviewing Options for ReformThe passage of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in 1977 set in motion a bold experiment that has yet to achieve its full potential. This chapter analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of implementation of the CRA over the last 33 years and provides potential directions for reform, one of which recommends that the Obama administration designate one agency to take the lead and give the agency a tight timetable, sufficient staffing and analytic resources, and the authority to resolve disputes. While reform may also involve legislation, it is important to make sure that it does not become overly prescriptive and stifle innovation. The banking world will continue to evolve, as will the best ideas on how to revitalize and strengthen communities.
Improving U.S. Housing Finance Through Reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: A Framework for Evaluating AlternativesThis chapter lays out criteria for evaluating proposals for reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The authors introduce the basic goals of a healthy secondary market for both the single-family and multi-family markets, which include access to liquid credit markets nationwide, countercyclical stability and availability of safe products that are reasonably priced and clearly understood by borrowers and investors.The authors also offer a framework that will help describe and understand the different proposals for reform and how variants of Fannie and Freddie might fit into that picture. As federal government officials contemplate the future of these two entities, the authors hope that this chapter offers a useful framework to use in evaluating the alternative proposals.
Ingrid Gould Ellen, John Napier Tye, Mark A. Willis. (University of Pennsylvania Press) . June 2011.
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Data Brief
New York Quarterly Housing Update 2011: 1st Quarter
In an analysis of first quarter housing indicators, the Furman Center finds that housing prices declined between the last quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011 in every borough except Queens, where prices remained essentially flat. The volume of home sales continued to decline in every borough compared to the previous year. The Quarterly Housing Update is unique among New York City housing reports because it incorporates sales data, new construction indicators, and foreclosures. It also presents a repeat sales index for each borough to capture price appreciation while controlling for housing quality.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. May 2011.
affordable housing, housing prices, mortgage foreclosures, neighborhoods
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