Neighborhood Change

Understanding patterns of neighborhood development and change, and their effect on local residents and businesses, is critically important for policymakers who wish to promote community development. The Furman Center explores several aspects of neighborhood change, such as the crime and urban flight on residents (especially poor renters); the residential decisions households make to move into neighborhoods that have average incomes lower than their own; and the impact of business incentive programs on the composition of retail services.

Current Research Agenda

In a time of economic upheaval, it’s vital to understand how neighborhoods change and to help policymakers make informed decisions about community development.

Our current reseearch projects include:

  • Affordable Housing And Crime In New York City
  • American Murder Mystery Revisited: Do Housing Voucher Households Cause Crime?
  • Are Voucher Households Reaching Safe Neighborhoods?
  • Long-Term Outcomes Of Neighborhood Gains: Can Low-Income Neighborhoods Become Stable, Integrated Communities?
  • The Effects Of Crime On Children’s School Performance
  • Urban ‘Pioneers’: When Do Higher-Income Households Choose Lower-Income Neighborhoods?

View all Neighborhood Change research projects »

For a list of all the Furman Center’s current research projects, download our Current Research Agenda.

Featured Researcher

Amy Ellen Schwartz

Amy Ellen Schwartz is Professor of Public Policy, Education, and Economics and Director of the NYU Institute for Education and Social Policy. She teaches courses in public finance and policy at both Wagner and The Steinhardt School of Education. Her research is primarily in applied econometrics, focusing on issues in urban policy and education policy and finance. Current research in K12 education examines the education of immigrant children in New York City, the race gap in test scores, and the impact of school organization and school size on student performance. Her work on economic development in New York City investigates the impact of Business Improvement Districts on property values. Previous research has examined the cost of college, evaluated the role of public infrastructure in determining state output, growth, and employment, and other issues in public finance.

Latest News & Events

Latest Publications

  • Data Brief

    The Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup of NYC Neighborhoods

    This analysis from the 2011 State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods report finds that 28 percent of the city’s census tracts were racially integrated in 2010, up from 22 percent of tracts in 1990. The percentage of neighborhoods that are mixed-minority also rose, from 17 percent of all tracts in 1990 to 24 percent in 2010.  Meanwhile, the share of neighborhoods that are majority white declined sharply, from 40 percent of all census tracts in the city to 23 percent.

    The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. May 2012.

    neighborhoods, race

  • Working Paper

    American Murder Mystery Revisited: Do Housing Voucher Households Cause Crime?

    In recent years, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has shifted resources from public housing to the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV or “voucher”) program. There were 2.2 million vouchers nationwide in 2008, compared to 1.2 million public housing units. Although the academic and policy communities have welcomed this shift, community opposition to vouchers can be fierce, due to perceptions that voucher-holders will both reduce property values and heighten crime. Despite the public concerns, however, there is virtually no research that systematically examines the link between the presence of voucher holders in a neighborhood and crime. Our paper uses longitudinal, neighborhood-level crime and voucher utilization data in 10 large U.S. cities over 12 years, and finds voucher-holders moving to a neighborhood does not, in fact, increase crime. We do see, on the other hand, that households with vouchers tend to move to communities when crime rates are rising.

    Ingrid Gould Ellen, Michael C. Lens, Katherine O’Regan. March 2012.

    affordable housing, crime, neighborhoods, renters

  • Working Paper

    Determinants of the Incidence of Loan Modifications

    Loan modifications ensure that borrowers avoid foreclosure and save their credit record. These modifications are also beneficial to the neighborhoods in which these borrowers reside, preventing vacancies and high rates of turnover. This analysis looks at loan delinquency and repayment plan data from New York City borrowers to provide the strongest predictors of modifications or liquidation of property. In this paper, we answer key questions about loan modifications, including how the identity, property or neighborhood of the borrower affects the likelihood of receiving a modification. We also look at the role of residential segregation, as well as the identity of the loan’s servicer as an influence on variations in borrower access to loan modifications.

    Vicki Been, Mary Weselcouch, Ioan Voicu, Scott Murff. September 2011.

    foreclosures, mortgage, neighborhoods

  • Working Paper

    Do Foreclosures Cause Crime?

    The mortgage foreclosure crisis has generated increasing concerns about the effects of foreclosed properties on their surrounding neighborhoods, and on criminal activity in particular. Using a unique dataset of point-specific longitudinal crime and foreclosure data from New York City, this paper explores whether foreclosed properties affect criminal activity on the surrounding blockface – an individual street segment including properties on both sides of the street. The researchers report that foreclosures on a blockface lead to additional violent crimes and public order crimes, and these effects are largest when foreclosure activity is measured by the number of bank-owned properties on a blockface.

    Ingrid Gould Ellen, Johanna Lacoe, Claudia Ayanna Sharygin. June 2011.

    crime, mortgage foreclosures, neighborhoods

View more Neighborhood Change publications »

Neighborhood Change in the News